The following article originally in german, translated by babelfish:
The following article originally in german, translated by babelfish:
Oil, economic security and geopolitical risks from today
Lecture with the Interpremeco Convention, Munich 13.-15 October
By F. William Engdahl
Banking people and fund managers are today sure that they can the costs of the most diverse risks measure and profit from them. The fictitious credit risk or credit loss derivatives over the last five years is numbered not in billions, but rather in trilliarden by dollars. Apart from other measures these instruments restricted among other things the credit breakdowns world-wide so far that they are as small with US treasure loans as never before. The increase of the financial risks resulting from it is more dangerous than at many other times. However do these risks fade compared with others, which practically no risk programmer in the computer center of any bank understands? neither with JP Morgan Chase, the Citibank, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, still with the German bank or UBS. The speech is from the so-called?geopolitischen risks?. In my current lecture I would like to speak about these risks and about it, how one can seize at least their dimensions.
Their effects on investments in gold and on plant decisions are enormous completely generally. That Paris summit between Russian president Vladimir Putin, the French president Jacques Chirac and the German Bundeskanzlerin Angela Merkel in September 2006 made clear that Russia acknowledges as important weltmacht. New Russia increases its influence by a whole row of strategic steps, in their center its geopolitically important energy reserves stehen?vornehmlich its oil and natural gas reserves. It uses the strategic mistakes and substantial political absence ride of Washington skillfully. New Russia is itself besides over the fact in clear ones that it decided to act must, if it not soon from a military rival, who the USA, wants to be encircled and overtrumped, against whom has it only few defense possibilities. In the to a large extent covered fight it goes for the highest employment in today's world politics. For the strategists in Washington Iran and Syria are only steps on the way to the large final game against Russia. On the agenda Paris summit level also the question of the future Russian energy supplies to the European union, in particular of Germany. That was characteristic for the new strength of Russia under Putin. Putin explained the German Kanzlerin that Russia?moeglicherweise? in the future a part of the natural gas from his enormous Shtokman field in the Barentsee will reroute. To $20 billion the expensive project is 2010 to the net to go, in order to supply terminals in the United States with liquid gas. Since the devastating misses of the USA?bunten revolutions supported? in Georgien and later the Ukraine, has Russia its strategic map too begun and very carefully spielen?sowohl with energy conclusions and with the sales of armament? of nuclear reactors for Iran up to armament for Iran, Venezuela and other Latin American countries, and strategic co-operation agreements over natural gas with Algeria and Iran. At the same time the government Bush ran itself by an agenda with regard to foreign policy, which allied and punishes enemies equally inconsiderately with verachtung, ever more deeply into a geopolitical sump.
More than every different one in Washington stands for Cheney for this politics of the Ruecksichtslosigkeit the former boss of Halliburton, thickly. Bushs presidency is based on a clear strategy. It was frequently misunderstood by its critics, because they concentrated on their most visible component, thus the Iraq, the middle east, the falcons in the environment of the vice-president and its old friend, Secretary of Defense Don Rumsfeld. The strategy of George Bush exists interlaced private oil giant in a US foreign policy on the basis of the safety device of direct control of the global energy reserves, control by four large US and/or with the USA -- ChevronTexaco or ExxonMobil, BP or Royal Dutch Shell. In particular it aims at control of all important oil regions as well as the important gas fields. This control tendency runs parallel with the increasing requirement of the USA on total military supremacy in relation to the only potenziellen threat for this global Ambitionen?Russland. Nobody can connect the American military and energy policy better to a coherent dominance strategy than Cheney, the at the beginning of the nineties under Bush senior also for Secretaries of Defense was probable. The Cheney Bush government controlled of an interest coalition from representatives of Big oil and the most important sectors of the American military militaerisch-industriellen of complex. These private-economical interests exercise their power by the fact that they control the US government politics. In addition substantially an aggressive militaristische agenda belongs.
Their embodiment is Cheneys of former employers, Halliburton Inc., at the same time the world largest Dienstleister in the range energy and geophysics and the world largest designer of military bases. To understand the policy one must directly look at oneself the position of Cheney in the question of future oil deliveries as a boss of Halliburton before its choice to the vice-president. The hauptgewinn: Cheneys Londoner speech of 1999 Already in September 1999, one year before the American elections, which made it the most powerful vice-president of history, held Cheney before its colleagues from the oil industry with London institutes OF petroleum a most informative speech. In a global sketch of the prospects for Big, Cheney said oil: According to estimations in the coming years the global oil demand will increase by on the average two per cent in the year, with simultaneous natural decrease of production from existing reserves by three per cent, carefully estimated. That is, that we will have up to the year 2010 an additional need of approximately fifty million barrels per day. Where is this oil to come? Governments and national oil companies control as well known about ninety per cent of the supplies. In principle oil is still a state industry. Despite the large possibilities for oil in other world regions the middle east with two thirds of the oil reserves of the world and the smallest costs remains in the long run the hauptgewinn?
Cheneys remarks are worth a careful reading. It proceeds from gaping supply and demand with about 4 million barrels per day, cumulatively, i.e. year by year? until we in the year 2010 with no less than 50 million new barrels arrive daily. Those are 50% of the entire today's world delivery of 83 million barrels per day. With the various peak oil theories about reaching the maximum oil delivery the thus nothing has to do. It corresponds to five new oil regions in the order of magnitude today's Saudi Arabia. Since it can take seven years or longer, until a new oil field achieved the full production capacity, thus also not more much time remains, if a horrende oil scarceness and telling lies high prices for gas and oil are to be turned away. Cheneys estimation was based besides on a much to careful estimation of the demand for oil imported goods in China and India, which are meanwhile the two countries with at the fastest increasing oil consumption on the planet. A further memorable expression of Cheney in London 1999 was the remark that the more?der middle east with two thirds of the oil reserves of the world and the smallest costs is in the long run the hauptgewinn? However was this Oel?gewinn? the middle east in national hand, inaccessible for an exploitation by the private market and thus from control of Cheneys Halliburton and its friends with ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell or BP extracted as far as possible. Cheneys remark?Im principle is oil still a state industry? and no private receives new weight, if one knows that Cheney participated also in an extremely influential report of a think tank, which appeared in September 2000 during the first election campaign from Bush Cheney.
Together with Don Rumsfeld, Paul Wolfowitz and many different, who became late members of the new government Bush, veroeffenlichte Cheney a fundamental report with the title?Die renewal of the defense America? (RH-BUILDING America?s Defenses). Publisher was?Projekt for the new American century? (Project for the new American Century - PNAC). The pn AC'S group around Cheney requested the new US president into spe to find a suitable pretext for a war against the Iraq in order to occupy it and to bring the second largest oil fields of the middle east under direct control of the USA. The report determines completely openly: ?Obwohl the unresolved conflict with the Iraq the direct justification (sic) supplies with, goes the necessity to substantial American troop operational readiness level at the gulf over the question of the regime from Saddam Hussein outside...? Cheney signed the key question in September 2000 a principle document, in which one explained, is the?amerikanische troop operational readiness level at the gulf? and a regime change in the Iraq - completely independent of the moral qualities Saddam Husseins. It was a first step for the transfer of US troops there, where?letztlich the hauptgewinn? lay. On it Cheney in its Londoner speech of 1999 had alluded exactly. Gets the oil reserves of the middle east from the hands of independent states and into the hands of those, which are controlled by the USA. The military occupation Iraq was the first important step in this American strategy. Washington?Hauptgewinn? was however control of the Russian oil reserves. De-construction of Russia: ?Hauptgewinn? For obvious military and political reasons Washington cannot admit openly that since the case of the Soviet Union in the year 1991 carving or smashing Russia up and effective control of its enormous oil and gas occurrence, the?hoechste price?, its strategic goal is. Still the Russian bear respekteinfloessendes a military Potenzial has, and still it has nuclear teeth. That is the point, at which us gradually a bad notion beschleicht, which we must understand by that that I?geopolitisches risk? call - a today frequently abused term. Center of the nineties-years started Washington systematically, all earlier satellite states of the Soviet Union not only into the European union, to lead but also into NATO dominated by Washington. Until 2004 was Poland, Tschechien, Hungary, Estland, Lettland, Litauen, Bulgaria, Romania, who became all Slowakei and Slovenia taken up to NATO, and the Republic of Georgien prepared for the entry. The expansion of NATO on earlier states of the Soviet Union or Warsaw Pact around Russia was approximately for the PNAC an important condition. Already 1996 were Bruce Jackson, pn AC member, old friend Cheneys and at that time in leading position with the American arms giant Lockheed Martin actively, chairmen of the US committee for the extension of NATO (Committee ton of Expand NATO), a powerful lobby organization in Washington. Also the pn AC members Paul Wolfowitz, Richard bead, Stephen Hadley and Robert Kagan belonged to the US committee for the extension of NATO.
Kagan is married with Victoria Nuland, which is in the meantime US ambassador at NATO. From 2000 to 2003 it was Cheneys Beraterin with regard to foreign policy. Hadley, the vice-president Cheney an intimate falcon and hard liner, were appointed of president Bush the successor of Condoleezza Rice as national security advisors. From the PNAC members of the falcon network moved up around Cheney in key positions in the government Bush, where they determined NATO and Pentagon politics. After Bruce Jackson had reached as successful lobbyist at the congress 1999 the extension of NATO on Poland, Tschechien and Hungary, did he turn to the structure of the so-called Vilnius group, which operated the admission of ten further former Warsaw Pact states at the periphery of Russia into NATO? in Jacksons words, the?grossen bang? After one had so far come with the NATO photographs, did Jackson dissolve the NATO committee in the year 2003, over in the same office as new lobby organization under the name?Projekt transition to the democracy? (Project on Transitional Democracies) again to open, that after its own words was?organisiert for the use of the possibilities for the acceleration of democratic reforms and integration, those our opinion after in the extended European-Atlantic region in the next decade will exist?. In other words, in order to advance the series of multicolored revolutions and regime changes in the Russian Eurasien. The three most important participants of the project transition to the democracy worked all for the republican party and have close connections to important arms suppliers, primarily Lockheed Martin and Boeing. In addition Jackson called?Komitee for the release Iraq? (Committee for the liberation OF Iraq - CLI) in the life. To the adviser of the CLI Neokonservative belonged and stramme republicans such as Jeane Kirkpatrick, Robert Kagan, Richard bead, William Kristol and the former director of the CIA James Woolsey. Deputy honorary chairmen were the senators Joe Lieberman (democratic party Connecticut) and John McCain (republican party Arizona). The white house had asked Jackson 2002 to create the CRI in order to repeat the success, which it had obtained with the campaign for the NATO extension with its US committee. ?Im it was called white house: ?Wir need you, you must for the Iraq the same reach as for NATO '? said Jackson in an interview in January 2003. I summarize: the encirclement of Russia by NATO, the multicolored revolutions in completely Eurasien and the Iraq war imagined and the same American geopolitical strategy, part of a comprehensive strategy for the last-finite De-construction of Russia as potential rivals for an exclusive hegemony of the superpower the USA. Russland?nicht the Iraq or the Iran?war and IS the primary goal of this strategy. Which price does this geopolitical risk have? During a ceremony in the white house to the greetings of the ten new NATO members in the year 2004 president explained Bush, the order of NATO now far over the borders of the alliance had expanded. ?NATO members hand the hand to the states of the middle east to strengthen over our abilities for the fight of the terrorism and work for our common security?, he said. Meanwhile however the order of NATO seems to go even beyond global security. Bush added: ?Wir possibilities consider, in order to promote and strengthen the impulse of the liberty in the further middle east? In other words, the liberty, to go into the periphery of a NATO alliance under control Washington. The end of the Jeltsin era brought a small disturbance in the plans of the USA. Slowly and carefully Putin formed itself as dynamic national strength, which the reconstruction of Russia felt obligated, after the country under the auspice of the IWF by a combination of western banks and corrupt Russian Oligarchen had been gepluendert. The Russian oil production had so far risen since the collapse of the Soviet Union that Russia up to the outbreak of the war between the USA and the Iraq had ascended 2003 to the world-wide second largest oil producing country to Saudi Arabia. The true meaning of the Yukos affair The event crucial for the new Russian energy geo politics occurred 2003, straight at the time, when Washington made clear that it would undertake military steps regardless of world-wide protests or diplomatic refinement of the UN against the Iraq and the middle east. The spectacular arrest of the Russian billionaire and?Oligarchen? Mikhail Chodorkowski in October 2003 and seizing of its enormous oil company Yukos is substantial for the understanding of the Russian energy geo politics. Chodorkowski was arrested in October 2003 at the airport by Nowosibirsk under the reproach of the tax evasion. The government Putin froze the shares of the oil company Yukos because of a complaint because of revenue offenses. During a lengthy process Chodorkowski was condemned to a term of imprisonment, its oil ability dropped back to the Russian state. In the western medium reports, which represented the procedure of the government Putin as a relapse in Soviet methods, the actual trip for Putin dramatic procedure remained unmentioned. The arrest Chodorkowskis came four weeks before a crucial choice to the Russian Duma, which Russian House of Commons, with which Chodorkowski under utilization of its substantial fortune had bought the majority of the voices. Control of the Duma was the first step in Chodorkowskis plan to begin in the following year as a presidency candidate against Putin. The victory in the Duma would have made possible for it to change the electoral laws to its favour just as a controversial law, which was compiled at that time in the Duma?Gesetz over underground resources?. This law would have prevented that Yukos and other private business control of bodenschaetze took over or private, from which Russian state pipelines independent pipeline routes built. Chodorkowski had broken the agreement of the Oligarchen with Putin, after it to fortunes? it in fact the state in the manipulated auctions under Yel'tsin would remain stolen hatten?unangetastet, if they kept out from the Russian policy and returned a part of the stolen money to the state. Chodorkowski, which served most powerful Oligarch for the time, as vehicle for something, which developed to a putsch supported obviously by Washington against Putin. Before its arrest Chodorkowski had met on 14 July 2003 secretly with vice-president thickly Cheney. After the meeting with Cheney Chodorkowski took up discussions with ExxonMobil and ChevronTexaco, the former company of Condi Rice, over the assumption of a substantial stock share at Yukos, allegedly between 25% and 40%. By the connection to the large American oil giants and thus to Washington Chodorkowski should receive an de-facto-immunity against possible interventions of the government Putin, practically a right of veto over future Russian oil and gaspipelines and oil business. Few days before its arrest in October 2003 because of revenue offenses, was Chodorkowski host for George H.W. Bush, the Muscovite representative of the powerful and discreet which hanging toners Carlyle Group. They discussed the locking details of the purchase of Yukos shares by the American oil company. In addition Yukos had delivered a straight bid for its rival Sibneft. With 19.5 billion barrels oil and gas YukosSibneft would have become then after ExxonMobil owner of the second largest oil and gas reserves of the world, YukosSibneft the fourth largest producer of the world, with a delivery of 2.3 million barrels Crude oil. The purchase of YukosSibneft by Exxon or Chevron would have been in the wahrsten sense of the word a energy-political coup d'etat. Cheney knew that; Bush knew it; Chodorkowski knew it. Above all it knew Vladimir Putin and acted, in order to prevent. Chodokowskis connections to the angloamerikanischen power establishment were impressive. Its donation, the donation open Russia, was copied from the donation open Society of its friend George Soros. In rate of the donation open Russia Henry Kissinger and its friend Jacob lord Rothschild, the Londoner branch of the banker family sat. Also Arthur Hartman, a former US Ambassador in Moscow, was member of the donation advice. After Chodorkowskis arrest reported the Washington post office that the arrested Russian billionaire Stuart Eizenstat? in former times deputy Minister of Finance, state secretary in the State Department, state secretary in the Ministry of Trade under Clinton? had engaged, in order to act in Washington for his release. Chodorkowski stood for the angloamerikanischen establishment very near. The following protests of the media and authorities of the west over the relapse in Soviet methods and glaring power politics ignored wohlweislich the fact that Chodorkowski was also not absolutely an honour man. At an earlier time Chodorkowski had on one side quit its contract with British petroleum. BP had been received a partnership with Yukos and to drillings in the promising Siberian Priobskoye oil field 300 million US dollar cost had let themselves. After BP had accomplished the drillings, Chodorkowski BP with gangster methods, which would have been illegal in most civilized countries, from the business pushed. Until had oil production in Priobskoye 129 million barrel reached 2003, what corresponds to a market value of approximately 8 billion US dollar. Already 1998, after the IWF billions at Russia had paid, in order to prevent the collapse of the rouble, branched Chodorkowskis bank Menatep of IWF funds at a breath-robbing value of 4.8 billion US dollar for its handread out Spiessgesellen in the banking transaction, among other things for several American banks. The duel between Putin and Chodorkowski was the indication of a crucial turn of the government Putin, for the renewal of Russia and the structure of strategic lines of defense against the foreign attacks under the guidance of Cheney and its British friend Tony Blair. It carried out itself in the context of the dreisten grasp of the USA to the Iraq in the year 2003 and the university-lateral announcement of the government Bush that the USA quit their contract obligations opposite Russia from in the past the locked anti-missile defense contract, in order to advance the development of the American anti-missile defense, which of Moscow only as hostile act could be interpreted against the security of Russia. 2003 were actually no special strategic sense of sharp more necessary, in order to recognize that the falcons in the pentagon and their allied one in the armaments industry and Big oil the vision America before-floated, that freely through international-law contracts university-laterally in its most characteristic? naturally of the falcons defined - interest to act could. After these events already soon from Washington financed covered destabilization of a set of governments at the Russian periphery, that had belonged to the Muscovite sphere of interest, followed. In addition the?pink revolution belonged? in the tiny Republic of Georgien from November 2003, with which Eduard Shevardnadze of a young president NATO-FRIENDLY trained in the USA and, me-hurry Saakaschwili, one displaced. The 37jaehrige Saakaschwili had itself fit-proves ready explained to support the oil pipeline of Baku over Tiflis after Ceyhan with which control of Moscow of the oil fields could be prevented by Aserbeidschan at the Kaspi sea. Since the power start of president me-hurry Saakaschwili maintain the United States close relations with Georgien. American military teachers train Georgian troops, and Washington spent millions of dollar, in order to prepare Georgien for the entry to NATO. After that Woolsey?s Freedom House, the?Nationale donation for democracy organized Pink revolution in Georgien? (national Endowment for Democracy - NED), of Washington nothing-national organizations the openly provocative?Orange revolution supported the Soros donation and different one? from November 2004 in the Ukraine. A goal of the orange revolution was it to bring there NATO a friendly regime under the disputed presidency of Viktor Juschtschenko to power to interrupt the most important pipeline stream of Russian oil and gas to Western Europe in a country, which was strategic able. By Washington supported?demokratische opposition movements? in neighbouring white Russia came also into the benefit of the generosity of the Bush government in the form of millions of dollars, likewise Kirgisien, Usbekistan and more remote earlier states of the Soviet Union, which could form also coincidentally a barrier between possible energy pipelines between China and Russia and fruehren Soviet states such as Kazakhstan. Again control of energy forms -, oil and gaspipelines the central motive behind the actions of the USA. It is not amazing therefore that Vladimir Putin asked itself gradually, whether its new, again-born texanischer prayer partner George W. Bush did not speak in reality, as the Indians said with split tongue to it. At the end of of 2004 was it Moscow clearly that a new cold war substantial initiated itself, this time over strategic control of the energy and university-lateral nuclear supremacy. From the unmistakable samples of the actions of Washington since the dissolution of the Soviet Union 1991 it was just as clear that the final goal of the American Eurasienpolitik was not China, not the Iraq and not Iran. The geopolitical?Endziel? and is for Washington complete smashing of Russia, the only state was in Eurasien, which would be able to organize under employment of his enormous oil and gas occurrences an effective network of alliances. Naturally one can never say that openly. Which price does this geopolitical risk have? For 2003 Putin and the Russian foreign policy, and particularly, reached the energy policy again on those the geopolitical concept?Kernlands? of Sir Halford Mackinder back, which had formed the basis of the Soviet strategy since 1946 during the cold war. Putin seized a set of defensive measures, in order to create in view of that increasingly clear US politics of the encirclement and attenuation of Russia a load-carrying reconciliation. In the consequence various strategic mistakes of the USA Russia facilitated this task somewhat. After the employment has itself meanwhile on both Seiten?NATO and Russland?erhoeht, PUT in Russia to the safety device of a better geopolitical position from the simple defensive to a more dynamic offensive changed over, whereby it uses its energy reserves as lever. Mackinders heartland and Brzezinskis game of chess One must know the historical background of the term geo politics. In the year 1904 a British geography scientist held named Halford Mackinder a lecture before the Royal Geographic Society in London, which should change history. In its lecture with the title more?Der geographical pivot of history? tried Mackinder a definition of the relationship between the geographical conditions of a nation or Region?deren topography, land and sea lanes, Klima?und of their politics and position in the world. It postulated two classes of powers: Sea powers, among other things Great Britain, the USA and Japan; and large land powers Eurasiens, which were since the development of the railways able, to unite large land masses in a national territory without being dependent on the sea. For Mackinder the key to the hegemony of the British world realm was after the First World War 1914-1917, at any price an interest convergence between the nations Osteuropas?Polen, Czechoslovakia, Austria Oesterreich-Ungarn?und Eurasi?Kernland? to prevent with the center Russia. With the Versailler Mackinder its ideas in the following famous utterance summarized peace negotiations: Who controls Central Europe, orders over the heartland; Who controls the heartland, orders over the world island; Who controls the world island, the world controls. By the heartland understood Mackinder the center Eurasiens. The world island was completely Eurasien, including Europe, the Mitteleren of the east and Asia. Great Britain, which had been never part of Continental Europe, was its own sea power. Mackinders geopolitical perspective was crucial for the entrance of Great Britain into the First World War 1914 and the Second World War. It coined/shaped Churchill's calculated provocations of the increasingly paranoiden Stalin since 1943, which pulled Russia into the later cold war. Out of view of the USA it concerned during the era of the cold war between 1946 and 1991 exclusively, who should attain control of Mackinders world island, more concretely, as one could prevent the eurasische heartland with center Russia evenly from it. A view of a polar projection map of the military alliances of the USA during the cold war proves: The Soviet Union had been geopolitically dammed and prevented from more jedweder more meaning connection with Western Europe, the middle east or Asia. In the cold war it concerned the Russian efforts to go around this NATO-CENTERED iron curtain. In his description of the most important strategic goals of the USA of preventing the union from Eurasien to a connected economic and military block and thus the formation of a counterweight to the only superpower the USA the American security advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski used 1997 expressly Mackinders geopolitical concept. To understand the American foreign policy since the at the beginning of the Bush Cheney presidency 2001 therefore a quotation from an informative article of Brzezinski from Foreign Affairs from September/October 1997 is helpful: ?Die majority of the politically penetrationable and dynamic states of the world lies in Eurasien. In the course of history all, which raised global claims to power, came from Eurasien. The most densely populated applicants around regional hegemony, China and India, lie in Eurasien, just like all potential challengers of the political or economic supremacy America. To the United States the six next largest national economies and countries with the highest defence expenditure lie in this region, likewise all legitimate countries possessing atomic weapons of the world except and all secret countries possessing atomic weapons except one. In Eurasien live 75 per cent of the population of world, it produces 60 per cent of the global gross national product and possesses 75 per cent of the global energy reserves. Altogether the power potential Eurasiens exceeds even Americas. Eurasien is a supercontinent, the axle of the world. A power, which would have the supremacy in Eurasien, would have crucial influence on two of the most productive world regions, Western Europe and Eastern Asia. A view of the map shows besides that a country with a dominating role in Eurasien could control nearly automatically also the middle east and Africa. Since Eurasien is the crucial geopolitical chessboard at present, it is no longer done to sketch a policy for Europe and one for Asia. The development of the distribution of power on the eurasischen land mass has crucial meaning for of Americas global supremacy?.?(Hervorhebung by the author w.e.) If we regard the words which hanging toners of the strategist Brzezinski and understands the axioms of the Halford Mackinder later as central motive of the British and the American foreign policy over more than one century, it becomes gradually clear why the again organized Russian state under the presidency of Vladimir Putin sat down in motion, in order to sit down against the offers promoted by Washington in the name of the democracy and obvious efforts to its smashing to the resistance. What did Putin, in order to strengthen the Russian lines of defense? The answer consists of a word: Energy. The Russian energy geo politics After standard of living, number of deaths rate and economic prosperity measured Russia does not rank today under the weltmaechten. After its energy reserves it is measured a Koloss. After its land mass it is still the largest single nation of the world, with a state surface, which extends from the Pacific to to the threshold of Europe. It possesses an enormous territory, rich bodenschaetze and the world largest occurrences of natural gas, the energy source, which is located at present in the center of important global power plays. Besides it is despite the collapse of the Soviet Union and the purge of the military taken place since then the only power of the world, which could make competition for the USA with a military capacity. Russia possesses oil and gas occurrences over 130.000 sources of oil and about 2000, by which at least 900 is so far not exploited. Its oil fields become estimated on 150 billion barrels, the same quantity as in the Iraq. They could be still substantially more extensive, however because of the difficulty from drillings in remote regions of the arctic yet were not diminished. With oil prices of over 60 US dollar per barrel becomes the exploration in these remote regions economically interesting. At present there are three routes of transportation for the Russian oil to the foreign markets: to Western Europe over the Baltic Sea and the black sea; over the north route; into the far east to China or Japan and the East Asian markets. At the Baltic Sea Russia has oil terminals in pc. Petersburg and extended oil terminals in Primorsk. To the national Russian network of natural gas pipelines?Gastransportverbundnetz? belongs a comprehensive network of pipelines and compressor act ions, which pulls itself also over 150,000 kilometers of length Russia over completely. After the law only the state-own Gazprom is justified for the use of the pipeline. The net is probably beside the oil and gas even the most valuable post in Russian public funds. This is the heart of PUT in new natural gas geo politics and the point of main conflict with western oil and gas companies and the European union, whose energy commissioner and-race Piebalgs from the new NATO member country Lettland originates, which belonged in former times to the USSR. When Moscow became clear 2001 the fact that Washington would find a way to lead the Baltic republics into NATO advanced Putin the building new, 2.2 billion US dollar of an expensive, large oelhafens in Primorsk at the Baltic Sea. This project, the Baltic pipeline system (bpses), reduces the dependence of the exports of Lettland, Litauen and Poland substantially. Bpses is of Russia most important route of transportation for the oil export, on the crude oil from of Russia oil provinces in west Siberia and Timan Timan-Pechora to the west to the port by Primorsk in the Russian part of the Finnish sea bosom is transported. Bpses in March 2006 and can per day over 1.3 million barrels Russian oil was finished into the western markets in Europe and transport beyond that. In the same month, March 2006, was appointed the former German Federal Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder the chairman of a Russian-German consortium for the building of a Ergasleitung, which was to run about 1200 km under the Baltic Sea. Majority shareholder in this project of a northEuropean gas-Pipeline (NEGP) is with 51% the Russian nationally controlled Gazprom, the largest natural gas enterprise of the world. The German companies BASF and e.on hold in each case a portion of 24.5%. The project, whose costs on 4.7 billion euro become estimated, was begun at the end of of 2005 and to the gas terminals in the Russian Baltic Sea port Vyborg with pc. Petersburg with the German Baltic Sea port grab forest will connect. The gas field of Yuzhno Russkoye in west Siberia is opened in a joint venture by Gazprom and the BASF, in order to supply the line. This was Schroeders last larger official act than Federal Chancellors and led to furious protests the Washington friendly Polish government and the Ukraine, which would lose thereby both control of the gas transportation from Russia. Despite its close relations with the Bush government Bundeskanzlerin Merkel had to swallow the toad and accept the project. For the German industry the Russian energy imported goods are simply indispensable. Russia is by far of Germany a largest natural gas supplier. The enormous erdgasvorkommen north of Shtokman in the Russian part of the Barentsee the port Murmansk will likewise supply the NEGP on a long-term basis with gas. After its completion the NEGP with its two parallel running lines Germany per year up to 55 billion cubic meter Russian gas will additionally produce. In April 2006 the government Putin began 11.5 billion US dollar with the east Siberia Pacific pipeline (ESPO), an expensive oil pipeline of Taishet in the region of Irkutsk in east Siberia to the Russian Pacific coast. She is built for the state-own Russian pipeline company by Transneft. After its completion it will pump daily up to 1.6 million barrels of Siberia to the far east of Russia and from there to the energy-hungry asiatic-Pacific region, mainly to China. The first assembly level should be final at the end of of 2008. So far Siberian oil can be transported only by rail to the Pacific For Russia the line from Taishet brings the maximum strategic use to Perevoznaya and makes at the same time oil exports possible to China and Japan. In the future the country of the port of Nakhodka can export oil direct to Japan. Oil-dependent Japan looks desperately for new safe sources of oil outside of the unstable middle east. The ESPO can besides both south and North Korea by the building of Nebenpipelines of Wladiwostok into both countries and China over a Nebenpipeline from Blagoveshchensk to Daqing supply. The Taishet pipeline offers a clear framework for energy-political co-operation between Russia and China, Japan and other countries of the asiatic-Pacific region. Sachalin: Russia zuegelt Big oil At the end of September 2006 fallow an apparently unimportant argument out and led to the revocation of an environmental permission for the project liquefaction of natural gas Sachalin II the Royal Dutch Shell, which should supply Japan, South Korea and other customers from 2008 on with liquid gas. Shell is northern the consortium leader in a British-Japanese oil and gas project on the large island Sachalin in the far east of Russia, Japanese Hokkaido. Then the government announced Putin that also ExxonMobil had adhered not to the environmental regulations for their oil terminals in De Kastri Sachalin, belonged to their oil and gas project the Sachalin I. In Sachalin I store roughly 8 billion barrels oil and substantial masses of gas, with which it is one the rare?Super Giant? Oelfunde, as geologists call it. Beginning of the nineties-years, as the Russian State of broke was and the oil prices in the cellar, made the government Yel'tsin a desperate attempt, the necessary investment means and technology for the development of the Russian Eroel and gas regions in the country to pull. In a bold action Yel'tsin assigned generous prospecting licenses for two large oil projects, Sachalin I and Sachalin II, both to American and other important western oil companies under a so-called production rate agreement. The regulations of the production rate agreements, which are typical for business relations between large angloamerikanischen oil companies and weak countries of the third world, mean that the oil and gas rights with a portion of the possibly finally promoted oil and/or gas are recompensed to the Russian government. After covering of all costs of the project the first drops oil would however only flow at Russia. Production rate agreements were originally developed by Washington and Big oil, in order to facilitate for the oil companies control of oil large-scale projects in developing countries. The large American oil giants, that co-operated with the James Baker of institutes, which provided again thickly Cheneys Energy task Force Review of 2001, used the possibilities of the production rate agreement, in order to provide again control of Iraqi oil production, and hid the whole behind the front of an state-own Iraqi oil company. Briefly before the Russian government communicated ExxonMobil the fact that in the case of their terminals on Sachalin problems would have resulted had announced a further increase of the costs of the project to ExxonMobil. ExxonMobil, which will represent from the attorney James Baker III and with the white house under Cheney and Bush co-operates closely, announced a cost increase of 30%, with which a any Russian portion of the oil rivers under the production rate agreement moved into still further distance. The announcement took place directly before the publication of plans of the ExxonMobil to open in De Kastri on Sachalin oil terminals. Thereupon the Russian Department of the Environment and the agency for the exploitation of bodenschaetzen explained suddenly, the terminals fulfill?nicht the environmental regulations?, and considers allegedly also a production stop for ExxonMobil. The British Royal Dutch Shell holds the development laws under another production rate agreement for the oil and gas occurrences of the region Sachalin II as well as rights for the building of the first Russian liquid gas project. 20 the billion-dollar project also over 17.000 jobs is to 80% final. It is largest integrated the oil and gas project of the world and enclosure also the first Russian offshore petroleum product ion project of Russia as well as first integrated Russian offshore gas platform. The clear steps of the Russian government against ExxonMobil and Shell were rated in the industry as attempt of the government Putin to regain control of the oil and gas occurrence which had delivered it during the Yel'tsin era. In the context of PUT in new energy strategy would be only stimmig. The Russian-Turkish gas project Blue Stream In November 2005 the Russian Gazprom closed the last stage of its 1,213 kilometers is enough and 3.2 billion US dollar expensive gas line Blue Stream off. The project continues to advance gas from their fields in Krasnodar and then in underwater pipelines by the black sea to on its Turkish bank. From there the pipeline supplies Ankara with Russian gas. If it reaches 2010 their full capacity, it will carry annually 16 billion cubic meter. Gazprom now considers the transit of Russian gas into the countries of south Europe and eastern of Mediterranean also contracts with higher delivery volume, new on the basis. Greece, South Italies and Israel stand all in negotiations with Gazprom, in order to receive over Turkey entrance to gas from the Blue Stream pipeline. A new route of transportation for gas supplies is planned, over east and Central Europe.
The project is called southEuropean gaspipeline. A goal is the structure of a new Durchleitungssystems for gas both from Russian sources and from third countries. Also without the potential, which results from its entrance into the world-wide development market liquid gas, stands the Gazprom in the center of the Russian efforts, with energy from oil, gas and nuclear sources new business partners and alliances in completely Eurasien for the forthcoming duel with the USA to open. American plans for a?nukleare supremacy? For Russia under Putin the key to success lies in its ability to defend its eurasische energy strategy by convincing military deterrence and the meanwhile obvious military plans of Washington for of the pentagon as?Full Spectrum the Dominance? to konterkarieren designated holistic Konztrolle. In an article with the title?The Rise OF US Nuclear Primacy? in Foreign Affairs, which magazine of the Council Foreign maintain on relation in New York, from March 2006 Kier dear one and Daryl press: ?Zum in nearly 50 years the United States at the threshold stand for first time for nuclear supremacy. The United States will be supposed soon able to destroy Russia or China arsenals of nuclear long-distance weapons in a Erstschlag. This dramatic misalignment of the nuclear power equilibrium results from a set of improvements in the nuclear systems of the United States, the tremendously rapid purge of the Russian arsenal and the ice-age modernization speed of the nuclear weapon systems of China. If the policy of Washington does not change and Moscow or Peking does not undertake steps to increase the size and readiness of their armed forces do Russia and China become -- and the remainder of the world? still many years in the shade of the nuclear supremacy of the USA live? The two American authors state - completely correctly - that since the collapse of the Soviet Union in the year 1991 of Russia arsenal at strategic nuclear weapons worsens?dramatisch? has. They come further to the conclusion that the USA consciously a global nuclear supremacy aims at, already for quite some time. The national safety strategy of the government Bush from September 2002 states expressly that the official policy of the USA aims at reaching a global military supremacy, which in view of the recent measures of Washington since the events of September 2001 for many nations today a disturbing conception is.
One of the favourite projects of Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld was the structure of an American anti-missile defense. It was sold to the American voters as defensive measure against possible attacks of terror. In reality it is directed against the only two genuine countries possessing atomic weapons, Russia and China, as the governments in Moscow and Peking recognized clearly. The article in Foreign Affairs implements: ?Eine anti-missile defense of the kind, how the United States could make it available plausiblerweise, would be meaningful primarily in an offensive and not in a defensive context? as addition of an American Erstschlagskapazitaet, not as only shield. In the case of a nuclear attack of the United States against Russia (or China) only a tiny arsenal would remain to the zielland -- if at all --. At this point even a relative to modest or inefficient anti-missile defense system would be sufficient the protection against any retaliatory strikes, because the heavily damaged enemy would have only very few remaining sprengkoepfe and dummy installations?
In view of the fact that the United States set the troops of their NATO partners now actively to Afghanistan and into Lebanon in motion and completely clearly the former USSR member Georgien to support, which is today a critical factor in connection with the kaspischen oil pipeline Baku Tiflis Ceyhan/Tuerkei, may hardly surprise it that Moscow the promises of the American president defined, from the USA the extended middle east the democracy to bring, possibly with a certain concern hear. This art term the more?Erweiterter middle east? is the creation of various Cheney of intimate think tanks in Washington, to those also its?Projekt for a new American century? heard, and designate not the Arab countries Turkey, Iran, Israel, Pakistan, Afghanistan, the centralasiatic (former USSR -) states, as well as Aserbeidschan, Georgien and Armenia. President Bush used this term for the first time on the G-8-Gipfel in the summer 2004 and named the target area for Washington's project of the spreading the?Demokratie? in the region. On 3 October warned the Russian State Department, Russia?geeignete measures will seize?, if Poland should position components of the new American anti-missile defense system. Poland is today member of NATO. Its Secretary of Defense Radek Sikorski was in former times once guest scientist in Washington with Richard Perles falcon think tank AEI. In addition he was a managing director of the?Neuen Atlantic initiative? (new Atlantic initiative), a project with the goal of leading under the cover of the spreading of the democracy the former Warsaw Pact states of Eastern Europe into NATO. Over NATO the United States develop besides a European anti-missile defense system. An only conceivable goal of such a system would be Russia, in the sense that it makes a Erstschlagerfolg possible for the USA. Completion European anti-missile defense system, which militarization of the entire of middle one east, which appears encirclement of Russia and China on the basis of a group of new US military bases, of which many are established in the name of the war against the terrorism, all this to the Kremlin meanwhile as part of a systematic American strategy?Full of the Spectrum Dominance?. The pentagon calls it and?Escalation Dominance?, thus to win the ability a war on each level of the force up to the nuclear war. The military status of Moscow In his speech for the situation of the nation from May 2003 Vladimir Putin spoke of a stabilization and a modernization of the Russian nuclear defense by the development of new weapons also for of Russia strategic armed forces, those?Verteidigungsfaehigkeit Russia and its allied one guarantees on a long-term basis?. Russia stopped the departure and the destruction of its SS-18-MIR-Ved-Raketen, after the Bush government had explained the end of the ABM contract as well as its actual cancellation of the starting ii-contract on one side. Russia remained always a powerful thing, which develops most modern weapon technologies. Even if his army, navy and Air Force in a desolate condition are, the conditions for of Russia reclimb for a military force center remain existing. Russia presents continuously first-class weapon technology on various international fairs and its abilities convincingly proved.
After an analysis of the which hanging toners think tank power and Interest news report (PINR) from the year 2004 Russia produces further most modern weapon systems despite financial and economic difficulties. One of its largest achievements after the dissolution of the Soviet Union was the armoured vehicle BMP-3, to which the united Arab emirates and Oman gave preference opposite western vehicles in the case of their arms supplies. The Russian surface-to-air rocket systems, which are considered to S-300 and their stronger successor S-400, as more powerful than the American Patriot rocket. Originally once the planned military exercise with Patriot and S-300-Raketen never came off, so that the undisputed, however also unproven requirement on superiority of the Russian over the American systems further in the area stand. Is continued this list with the military helicopters from the Kamow-50-Familie, whose ultramodern and innovative technology and tactics make it equal for the best military equipment of the USA. From circles of European helicopter producers one confirms. In the recent common Indian-American Air Force maneuvers, in which the Indian Air Force was equipped with modern Russian Su-30-Kampfflugzeugen, it was superior in the majority of the employments the American F-15, what induced the general of the US Air Force Hal Homburg to the confession that Russian weapon technology in Indian hand the US Air Force?wachgeruettelt? has. The Russian military establishment works far helicopters, tanks and armoured vehicles further on the construction, which can measure with the best western products. Weapon exports were beside oil and gas one of the best possibilities for Russia of coming to the urgently needed foreign exchange. Russia is second largest weapon exporter already now to the USA. In various magazines and magazines it is reported that the modern Russian military equipment is at present put because of existing financial difficulties and restrictions in Russian armed forces rather exported as the own armies at the disposal. For of Americas future military operations that has consequences, there practically all combat formations of aufstaendischen, Guerilla, fragment or groups of terrorists in the world? evenly the formations, which the United States in their future wars will earliest face? are equipped with Russian weapons or their derivatives. The Russian nuclear arsenal plays an important political role since the end of the Soviet Union, because there is the Russian state a fundamental security. 2003 had to buy Russia of the Ukraine strategic bombers and intercontinental missiles, which were stored there. Since this time strategic nuclear weapons had priority. Today the Russian finances of the state stand, to a large extent owing to the high receipts from exports for oil and gas on a firm basis. The Russian central bank holds meanwhile with more than 270 billion US dollar the fifth-highest dollar reserve. Despite the general load by military commitment and defence expenditure the USA develop their influence and military operational readiness level in the middle east at present without large of waiving. Why? On the one hand surely because of the oil. Geopolitically regarded it concerns in addition, to neutralize eurasische land power Russia or to prevent it from the entrance to the sea?
completely in the sense of Mackinder. The grasp of the USA after the?nuklearen supremacy? over Russia is the world-political factor, which has earliest the potential to cover the world because of a miscalculation with a nuclear area conflagration. Some years ago the Shanghai CO operation Organization (SCO) was created by Russia and China, in order to unite selected eurasische countries to a dialogue. In the case of its establishment in June 2001 by China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kirgisien, Tadschikistan and Usbekistan their avowed goal existed first in it?die co-operation on the area of n politics, economics and trade, science and technology, culture and education just like energy?? to promote. In past June the Iranian president Achmadinedschad was welcome as observers, to step and that Iran encouraged by Russia and China, the SCO. So far the SCO is to all appearances rather a rather unstructured panel. Also little provocation on the part of the USA and NATO could mutate it however rapidly for the core of a broader eurasischen military and energy alliance than counterweight to the nuclear supremacy of the USA. Halford Mackinders nightmare could go thus into fulfilment, ironically mainly due to the university-lateral and aggressive foreign policy to too self-assured America. In its central point Mackinders remains relevant geopolitical concept: ?Die large geographical realities do not change: Land power against sea power, heartland against edge country, center against periphery...? That is Russia just as clearly as Washington.