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  #131  
Old 11-22-2009, 08:34 AM
JazzRoc JazzRoc is offline
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Default Re: Contrails cannot form into clouds (proof!)


“Contrails to Cirrus—Morphology, Microphysics, and Radiative Properties”:

http://www-pm.larc.nasa.gov/sass/pub...s_JAMC2006.pdf

"Remarks—Climatic impact
It is interesting that the mean optical depth found in this case (0.35) corresponds to that found in climatological satellite measurements by Ponater et al. (2002) and Minnis et al. (2004), and that the microphysical properties are consistent with a wide range of observations and models by prior authors. Accordingly, it is appropriate to speculate on their effect on climate.
The issue of the impact of contrail-generated cirrus (CS) on climate change has been treated by a number of investigators.
Sassen (1997) suggested that the unusually small particles typical of many persistent contrails might favor the albedo cooling over the greenhouse warming. Using a 2D mesoscale cloud model, Khvorostyanov and Sassen (1998) computed the distribution of the mean crystal radius, concentration, and ice water content of a contrail after 30 minutes of development.
They found a twofold effect. At the surface, the net greenhouse minus albedo effect was negative with a cooling of 15 Watts per square meter.
However, at the top of the atmosphere (corresponding to the entire atmospheric column), the net effect was a warming of 8 Watts per square meter.
We note that the latter simulation for the early stage of the cloud produced very large concentrations of small crystals, and that the longwave warming would be increased relative to the shortwave cooling, with the much larger particles, such as are found in the present study.
An evaluation of the effects of contrail cirrus over the globe is complex because of the great geographic and diurnal variability of air traffic, the variability of optical thickness and persistence of the clouds, the background brightness, and the natural changes in ambient humidity (Minnis 2003).
There are also a number of feedback mechanisms at play that climate models have not dealt with very well.
The finding that the vertical motions accompanying the transformation to cirrus also increase the humidity above the contrail is one such factor (Jensen et al. 1998). Nevertheless, using results from a general circulation model simulation of contrails, Minnis et al. (2004) found that the cirrus trends resulting from contrails in the United States are estimated to cause a tropospheric warming of 0.2– 0.3C per decade, a range that includes the observed trend of 0.27C per decade between 1975 and 1994. One must emphasize that, even if correct, this is a regional effect.
We may summarize the various studies as follows:
1) regional effects in the 1990s in the United States and Europe have a cover of 0.5%–2% with a maximum over Europe of 0.35%, and warming of 0.1–0.2 W per square metre, and
2) global effects that are about 0.1 of the regional values.
These estimates are based upon the work of Minnis et al. (1998), Ponater et al. (2002), Palikonda et al. (2002), and Minnis et al. (2004).
The latter authors also project an aircraft scenario for 2050 that would produce a regional radiative forcing of 1.5 Watts per square metre over Europe, a global coverage of 0.5%, and a radiative forcing of 0.05 Watts per square metre. In short, the present-day effects are significant regionally but in the noise globally. Further research is necessary to assess factors such as the amount of cirrus that is initiated by the contrails but not distinguishable from natural cirrus.

Summary and Conclusions

This study of the transformation of contrails to cirrus uncinus (mares’ tails) was made possible by a fortuitous and unique combination of observations by a groundbased camera, a vertically pointing lidar, satellite imagery, and a new database of aircraft flight tracks. The photograph documented the metamorphosis of the contrails to cirrus and the formation of fallstreaks almost continuously along the contrails in directions consistent with the winds.
A novel method was developed to use the visible photograph with the lidar-measured cloud heights to obtain the true orientation of the contrails and fallstreaks, their spacing, and their dimensions.
Although the cirrus lines appeared to converge in the southwest, they were actually almost parallel to one another, oriented from about 232 to 52 and spaced about 4–5 km apart, as confirmed by the satellite image and by the time spacing of their passage over the lidar.
The flight tracks occurred in two corridors: the western corridor corresponded to flights from east coast cities to Atlanta and others in the general vicinity; the eastern corridor flights originated mostly from the same cities to destinations in Florida and the vicinity.
Although the flight tracks in each corridor followed nearly identical paths in sequence, their contrails separated in time and were advected to the southeast with the component of the wind normal to the trail. When the contrails passed over the lidar at GSFC each appeared as a cirrus uncinus cloud with a generator turret and fallstreak of ice crystals oriented nearly normal to the length of the contrail. Using the appropriate component of the wind to extrapolate backward in time, we were able to correlate each contrail at the lidar with a specific aircraft flight with a remarkable correlation coefficient of 0.99.
The older contrails from a few of the flights in the western corridor arrived at the lidar nearly simultaneously with the younger ones from the eastern corridor, thus producing broader contrail cirrus at the lidar. This is also manifested by the overlap of contrails in the eastern corridor as seen by the satellite. The lag between the initial formation and the time of first detection by MODIS is approx. 33 min. The 2 h required for the contrails from the western corridor to reach the lidar at GSFC is a measure of their minimum lifetime, because they persisted beyond GSFC. The lead author watched them for about 1–2 hours later in the afternoon.
Among other notable features of the contrails, which have formed at about -40C, are the convective turrets or generator cells of the cirrus uncinus that grow to 1–2-km horizontal size from the initial downward pendants created by the wake dynamics of the aircraft, as shown by other investigators. The pendants are composed of a large concentration of tiny ice crystals and large ice water content (IWC) and grow via heating by longwave radiation from the ground.
The brightness of the generator cells, comparable to that of warm cumulus, is also a result of the large concentration of tiny ice particles, as deduced from the lidar observations and by in situ sampling by prior authors.
The lidar observations provided three time–height profiles:
1) the attenuated lidar scattering ratio (ALSR)
2) the extinction coefficient (d)
3) the radar reflectivity factor (Z)
The slope of the fallstreaks provided particle fall speeds and an approximation to the particle median volume diameters (D0). The values of d and D0 lead to the IWC and to the parameter K = (d/IWC), the ratio of extinction to IWC. All of the values deduced are in reasonable agreement with those by other investigators. The vertical integrals of d and IWC provide the optical thickness T and ice water path (IWP), respectively.
The time-averaged values (over the 93-min period observed by the lidar) are Tau = 0.352 and <IWP> = 8.14 grams per square meter, and are dominated by the fallstreaks.
The average ice water per meter along the length of the contrail is 16 Kilograms (35.4 pounds) per meter, some three to four orders of magnitude (1,000 to 10,000 times) greater than the water vapor released by typical jet aircraft, also similar to previously reported values.
The net effect of the water and particles released by the aircraft results in a major inadvertent modification of the atmosphere under appropriate ambient conditions. Furthermore, the evaporation of the fallstreaks at lower levels indicates the downward transfer of moisture from the upper levels where the crystals have grown.
Although most investigators favor the finding that contrail cirrus produce atmospheric warming on regional scales in the United States and Europe, the impact on global warming is still in the noise. Should aircraft activity increase as projected, the global effects would become significant by 2050."



DR. PATRICK MINNIS, Climate Sciences Branch, NASA Langley Research Center, Mail Stop 420, Hampton, VA 23681.
Born in Shawnee, Oklahoma. Raised in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma graduating from Casady School in 1968.
1991 – Ph.D., University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, Meteorology 1978 – M.S., Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, CO, Atmospheric Science
1972 – B.E., Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN, Materials Science & Metallurgical Engineering, Senior Research Scientist, NASA Langley Research Center Science Directorate,
1981-1986, Research Scientist, NASA Langley Research Center Materials Application and Technology Division,
1977-1981, Research Engineer, Kentron International,
1972-1975, Product Engineer, Ferro Fiberglass.


Let us continue to what the research paper says: "CONTRAILS FORM INTO CLOUDS".


Last edited by JazzRoc : 11-22-2009 at 08:36 AM.
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  #132  
Old 11-22-2009, 10:21 AM
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Default Re: Contrails cannot form into clouds (proof!)

Quote:
Originally Posted by JazzRoc View Post
The average ice water per meter along the length of the contrail is 16 Kilograms (35.4 pounds) per meter, some three to four orders of magnitude (1,000 to 10,000 times) greater than the water vapor released by typical jet aircraft, also similar to previously reported values.
The net effect of the water and particles released by the aircraft results in a major inadvertent modification of the atmosphere under appropriate ambient conditions.
Please explain exactly what the particles are.

Why is the water per meter in a contrail 1000-10000 (there's some exact science) greater than the water vapor released by "typical" aircraft.

What is the difference between typical and atypical aircraft?

You just debunked yourself.
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  #133  
Old 11-22-2009, 02:10 PM
TrutherD TrutherD is offline
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Default Re: Contrails cannot form into clouds (proof!)

Could those fibers I spotted be similar to the ones coming out of people's skin in the documentary "The Ultimate Chemtruth"?


I'll likely do some more darkfield analysis later on today.
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  #134  
Old 11-22-2009, 04:19 PM
JazzRoc JazzRoc is offline
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Default Re: Contrails cannot form into clouds (proof!)

Quote:
Originally Posted by stompk View Post
Please explain exactly what the particles are.
Partially-burnt and unburnt hydrocarbon molecules and soot particles.
No combustion process is EVER complete when the oxidant gas (oxygen) is DILUTED 1:4 by a relatively inert gas (nitrogen).



Quote:
Why is the water per meter in a contrail 1000-10000 (there's some exact science) greater than the water vapor released by "typical" aircraft.
The atmosphere is INEXACT in that it doesn't conform to your ideas of what it should be. Being natural it is continuously variable.
Stratospheric layers are always found to be PROGRESSIVELY WARMER with increasing altitude away from the tropopause. Their humidity (and therefore their saturation with respect to ice) is somewhat variable along their length and particularly variable from layer to layer.
Hence the "chemtrails on - chemtrails off" myth.



The amount of water that can exist as vapor in a given volume is proportional to the temperature. When the amount of water vapor is in equilibrium above a flat surface of water the level of vapor pressure is called saturation and the relative humidity is 100%. At this equilibrium there are equal numbers of molecules evaporating from the water as there are condensing back into the water. If the relative humidity becomes greater than 100%, it is called supersaturated. Supersaturation occurs in the absence of condensation nuclei, for example the flat surface of water.
Since the saturation vapor pressure is proportional to temperature, cold air has a lower saturation point than warm air. The difference between these values is the basis for the formation of clouds. When saturated air cools, it can no longer contain the same amount of water vapor. If the conditions are right, the excess water will condense out of the air until the lower saturation point is reached. Another possibility is that the water stays in vapor form, even though it is beyond the saturation point, resulting in supersaturation.
Supersaturation of more than 1-2% relative to water is rarely seen in the atmosphere. For high levels of supersaturation there must be no condensation nuclei for the water vapor to condense on.
Supersaturation can also occur relative to ice. This is much more common in the atmosphere than supersaturation relative to water. Water droplets are able to maintain supersaturation relative to ice (remain as liquid water droplets and not freeze) because of the high surface tension of each microdroplet, which prevents them from expanding to form larger ice crystals. Without ice nuclei supercooled liquid water droplets can exist down to about −40 C (−40.0 F), at which point they will spontaneously freeze.

Cloud physics - Wikipedia

Quote:
What is the difference between typical and atypical aircraft?
The difference between THIS (TYPICAL):



and THIS (ATYPICAL):



The fractionally-lower combustion efficiency of the fighter aircraft (typically powered by long twin-spool turbojet engines with reheat, as opposed to the high bypass ratio turbofan engines of a modern passenger aircraft) leads to it producing a slightly less humid trail. This will lead to a slight reduction in trail density in most situations.
There are photos of an Airbus flying alongside a Boeing 707 showing the Airbus laying down a trail while the 707 does not.

Quote:
You just debunked yourself.
No. I just debunked THIS THREAD.

It's taken you a while to respond properly (in a very small way) to my first post. You have a long way to go...

Last edited by JazzRoc : 11-22-2009 at 05:34 PM.
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  #135  
Old 11-22-2009, 04:57 PM
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stompk stompk is offline
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Default Re: Contrails cannot form into clouds (proof!)

How convenient of you to leave out PM2.5 (particulate matter, 2.5 nanometre).

Quote:
The operation of jet engines results in the release of HC, CO,
NOx, sulfur dioxide (SO2), and particulate matter.
...
Aerial deposition of particulates from jet exhaust may adversely
affect the environment, as well as human health.
...
Heavy metals associated
with these aerosols have been shown to adversely affect several
plant species (10) and some animals (11,12).
http://www.areco.org/pdf/Particulate...ngines1996.pdf

But you well know about the particulates, don't you. How honest of you (not) to include them in your fancy formulas.
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  #136  
Old 11-22-2009, 05:12 PM
TrutherD TrutherD is offline
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Default Re: Contrails cannot form into clouds (proof!)

Ask yourself one question. Why would anyone spend so much time ridiculing and discrediting those who believe in chemtrails? Surely a few "crazy conspiracy theorists" are no threat to their world. JazzRoc is either an obsessive-compulsive delusional or a paid shadow-government-affiliated troll. The only threat to him is the truth.
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Last edited by TrutherD : 11-22-2009 at 05:16 PM.
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  #137  
Old 11-22-2009, 05:14 PM
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Default Re: Contrails cannot form into clouds (proof!)

Quote:
Originally Posted by TrutherD View Post
Ask yourself one question. Why would anyone spend so much time ridiculing and discrediting those who believe in chemtrails? Surely a few "crazy conspiracy theorists" are no threat to their world. JazzRoc is either an obsessive-compulsive delusional or a paid shadow-government-affiliated troll.
Well, we know the answer to that. It's both!

He keeps the thread alive, so he serves a purpose.
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  #138  
Old 11-22-2009, 06:14 PM
JazzRoc JazzRoc is offline
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Default Re: Contrails cannot form into clouds (proof!)

@ stomptrutherDuh

How convenient of you to leave out PM2.5 (particulate matter, 2.5 nanometre). But you well know about the particulates, don't you. How honest of you (not) to include them in your fancy formulas.
And what's that got to do with "Contrails cannot form into clouds (proof!)"?
Trace elements, even radioactive ones, are present in ALL fossil fuels.
You had better turn off your heating and sell your transportation and take to riding a bicycle and wearing thicker pullovers before you DIE of hypocrisy.
Haven't you noticed that the road outside is a source of greater danger?
The stuff seeping through the cracks in the doors and windows - the heated air from sub-floor gas heaters. Hell, you'd better buy a GASMASK.

Ask yourself one question. Why would anyone spend so much time ridiculing and discrediting those who believe in chemtrails? Surely a few "crazy conspiracy theorists" are no threat to their world. JazzRoc is either an obsessive-compulsive delusional or a paid shadow-government-affiliated troll. The only threat to him is the truth.
And what's that got to do with "Contrails cannot form into clouds (proof!)"?
From now on I shall use "H" to stand for the word "hypocrisy", because you make me have to type it all the time.
The western world has been subject to a dumbing-down process brought about by a right wing counter-revolution begun in the late sixties after a generally left-wing revolution which began in the mid-sixties. I know because I was there.
You are the product of it, I'm sorry I couldn't stop it, but here you are, and we have to deal with it. Even if you obtained a modest scholastic success by age eighteen, any educated Chinese person half your age will be superior to you in intellect.
You lack the means to handle truth. (Jack Nicholson springs to mind, suddenly.)

Well, we know the answer to that. It's both! He keeps the thread alive, so he serves a purpose.
And what's that got to do with "Contrails cannot form into clouds (proof!)"?
My purpose is to show you truth, and to show others how YOU fail to handle it. That's good enough for me. Thanks for helping.

Last edited by JazzRoc : 11-22-2009 at 06:37 PM.
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  #139  
Old 11-22-2009, 06:23 PM
TrutherD TrutherD is offline
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Default Re: Contrails cannot form into clouds (proof!)

Blah, blah, blah. This does nothing to explain segmented trails, trails starting and stopping, X patterns, grids, close parallel lines, etc. etc. as seen in hundreds of thousands of videos around the web.


JazzRoc will only convince a few gullible sheep. Hardly seems worth it.
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Last edited by TrutherD : 11-22-2009 at 06:28 PM.
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  #140  
Old 11-23-2009, 12:24 AM
BlueAngel BlueAngel is offline
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Default Re: Contrails cannot form into clouds (proof!)

Thank goodness for all these chemtrail/contrail experts on the forum.

I don't know what we'd do without them.

They have completely cleared up any unresolved questions I've had as to whether or not chemtrails are harmful or not.

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