End 2012 – Neo-protectionism establishes itself as the new paradigm of world trade
- Excerpt GEAB N°57 (Sept. 16, 2011) -
Analysis published in GEAB 4 months ago:
Because of the simultaneity of the global economy (1) relapsing into recession and key political events affecting the world’s major economies (2), we anticipate a sharp rise in protectionism from the end of 2012. In its initial phase, it will mainly take the form of various non-tariff barriers, more discreet than traditional customs duties, but it will, de facto, cause the most important change in the terms of world trade since the signing of the GATT (General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, the WTO ’s predecessor) in 1947.
Neo-protectionism: A protectionism that won’t give its name and will assume a modern guise
Initially, these protectionist measures will attempt to formally abide by the various multilateral treaties and other WTO provisions (at least to buy time via contentious appeals with ad hoc bodies), because each player will continue in parallel to try and increase its exports. Indeed, export-oriented countries like Germany and China, as well as most emerging nations, won’t take the risk of encouraging their buyers to erect their own tariff barriers.
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