Moscow's stock market once again No. 1
By Andreas Männicke
Saturday 11 April 2009
100% chance is Eastern Europe. Fulminant bullish on the stock market Ostbörsen. BRIC is again an issue. Japan's mega-cyclical program. Oil price at year high. Gold breaks a default preference values. Strong profit likely.
Totgeglaubte live longer: The RTS index, one of the many stock market barometer of the Russian stock market rose on 8 April on USD basis to 6.62% at 810.3 index points. Thus, the RTS index in a month and by 27% since the beginning of the year to 28.33%. The MICEX index, which is calculated based ruble rose on 8 April is "just about 5.72% to 922 index points, so he climbed since the beginning of the year but already 48.93%. In 1 year is the RTS Index is still 61% and 45% on MICEX.Index Minus One reason for the sharp price increase was the sharp rise in oil prices last 54 USD per barrel for WTI of the variety, which now also at the pump Unfortunately for motorists at Easter in enhanced manner is appreciable. Moreover, the reduced capital curse and the ruble was stabilized again. It is the inflation rate of 14% is still much too high.
Thus, the Moscow stock exchange this year the best performing stock exchange in the world, which earlier this year hardly anyone had expected. Quite offensichtsichtlich have shortly before Easter a few Russia as a foreign investment fund market rediscovered who previously had expressed great skepticism. The share price rally was almost as strong as the end of October, when the MSCI Emerging Market index rose by 52% in a week rise. Now, the MSCI Emerging Market Index by at least 25.85% in a month and an increase of 11.34% since the beginning of the year. This clearly shows that investments in emerging markets again worthwhile.
But the exchanges were zentralosteuropäischen in March and early April from its lows in February vigorously recover. So, the BUX index of the Budapest Stock Exchange in a month and by 29% since the beginning of the year at 4.61% Index points to 12806, the WIG index of the Warsaw Stock Exchange by 21.6% in one month and 2.9% to 28,017.8 index points since the beginning of the year and the PX index of the Prague Stock Exchange to 29.7% in a month and 4, 61% since the beginning of the year to 840.8 index points. The PFTS Index of Exchange Kiev exploded even by 39% in a month and is thus "only" 7% in the minus. In one year remained so even a minus of 71%. Similarly, "cruel" is the reality when ROTX Index for Romania with a price increase of 50% in a month, but losses of over 60% in one year. A paradise for experienced traders, but long-term investors are still strongly negative, was only in 2006 when the Ostbörse discovered. Griffin Eastern EuroeanFfund verzeichnette but an increase of 21% pa since 1998, which shows that I even long-term investments in Eastern Europe paid off ..
This also shows how enormous the "Vola" in the moment on the east and world stock markets still is, but since November has a stabilization in the sense of a volatile sideways movement in full swing. All Ostbörsen indices are endless even allowances traded, while, however, the spreads Ask / Bid in illiquid markets have increased enormously. The UTX-index for Ukraine was his last even 34%, so that what one actually wants to earn, is already spread in the bid / ask price of it. Still, the spreads are higher at the moment in addition to values in Ukraine and in Russia, where it sometimes for weeks no transactions exist. Therefore, I recommend that in the trading range remains liquid blue chips, or ETFs. The spreads in the credit default swaps have been significantly reduced, which is a good sign. But they are always in the exceptionally high by historical standards.
The course was addressed to all world stock markets since March "V-shaped", so went without soil formation, and even without fundamental reasons. On the contrary, the economic data such as weak GDP figures and unemployment rates are high (in the U.S. over 600,000, in Spain, already 15%) in 1Q09 show the strength of the worldwide recession at. However, positive news in the banking sector "dispersed" and many short sales had to monoplane, which push the price closer to the top. The stronger the stock markets rise, the more gold lost its value, since the "fear premium" no longer applied and also the inflation rates decrease. The gold price dropped since the high in March of close to 990 to 883 USD / oz (previous day 880 USD / oz). On 8 April was, the gold price, despite the mega-financial crisis, so even in the 1-year by 5.4% in the minus. However, gold was one of the most stable investments in the 1-year mainly on the basis of weak currencies.
In contrast, others were mainly raw materials such as copper and oil significantly in recent weeks in price growth. The copper price in a month increased by 22% at 4400 USD / tonne and the price of oil by 18.7% to 51.6 USD / oz, with both raw materials as early indicators of a recovering economy, therefore. The rally also benefited the copper and Ölprozenten in Eastern Europe, which therefore also in the EAST STOCK TRENDS "earlier in time than" shares of the Month "were highlighted. Most oil-Blue chips rose from the February lows already, over 50%. Even media shares from Eastern Europe were included in the course in a few Weeks nearly doubled, which shows how high the trading opportunities in this volatile time.
Following the strong rise in stocks and also some raw materials in the next few weeks after Easter, but recovered with strong profit to be expected. Who to believe the lunar calendar: on 9 April was a full moon and then it could not go downhill. In a positive scenario, the shares rise by the end of April after a healthy correction and still close to the still-falling 200-Tagaeslinie, what then is still a Bärmarktrallye and no reversal would be. Trader, but also long-term investors should continue their stop-loss marks in each case follow. It will be bearish again if the S & P 790 or in the DAX index below 3900-points should fall. At the dominant news and possible disturbance to a possible bankruptcy of General Motors and the announcement of the horror of U.S. $ 4 trillion (!) "Toxic waste" in the books of banks, the IMF in a new study have been identified. The now significantly improving mood can quickly turn again. Let's hope but a continuation of the rally and also that the economy will draw programs worldwide. The next question should then be how high the taxes next year in order to balance the budget deficits to be reduced again. Until now it is still "wishful thinking and not to good fundamentals, which - in combination with the technology market (Short-Covering) - to the fulminating course led recovery.
I fear that we are often soon be a 180% turnaround in investor note. Most investors are still acting pro-cyclically and not anti-cyclical, but no good results. Who now, since adopted a much higher risk in buying back more than 1 month ago, when the sentiment indicators were low. An effective means to secure profits are Teilgewinnmitnahmen and the raising of the stop-loss marks: This is automatically included in the investor liquidity. Sure can also happen that it is too early ausgestoppt, but that is still better than exchange losses "aussitzen" to want to be passive and to behave in a loss of still more than 50%, sometimes even over 70% in the depot. Most private investors are louder fright before the horror news in lethargy in ruins or have become frustrated with the high-loss selling. Waking up from your hibernation and are you so active again since the spring with a beautiful flower bouquet full of investment opportunities outside the door! In addition, the Russian Bear again blithely. Are you all not to be greedy and keep in mind that such Kursavancen as in March / early April with a 50-100% chance to Ostbörsen not in such a short time normal.
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